With rising crude and fuel prices, navigation costs are higher, and if the Panama route is shorter, it becomes a more attractive option. This shift does not necessarily mean more transits, but adjustments in how cargo is moved. "Then the United States would have to supply that market, and having a short route becomes more important," he explained. The administrator added that the impact will depend on the duration of the conflict. According to Ricaurte Vásquez, the administrator of the Panama Canal, in an interview with SNIP Noticias, the increase in oil and fuel prices could elevate the value of shorter maritime routes like the one through Panama, which could influence the logistical decisions of shipping companies amid the current tension in the Middle East. Vásquez explained that when navigation costs rise, more efficient routes gain relevance in global trade. He said that shipping companies might opt to assign larger vessels or reorganize the repositioning of containers. "What could be affected are three things: cargo, manufacturing, and the repositioning of containers that, instead of taking the longer route, would come via the Panama route," he explained. In that scenario, it is likely that shipping companies will assign larger vessels. "It doesn't necessarily mean increasing the number of transits, but increasing the size of the vessel, which represents a marginal income for the Panama Canal, because we charge based on the size of the vessel," he noted. Part of these adjustments may also involve greater transshipment activity at Panama's port terminals as part of route optimization. Vásquez also indicated that one of the segments where additional movement could be observed is liquefied natural gas (LNG), especially if Asia needs to be supplied more from the United States. But if the situation prolongs, "then there could be a reallocation of routes." "If the conflict ends relatively quickly and things normalize within the first three weeks or the first month, the impact is much smaller. It's simply a temporary disturbance in the market," he indicated.
