Given the oceanic and atmospheric conditions, the expected rainfall scenarios for Panama are as follows:
On the Pacific slope: - For the provinces of Chiriquí, Veraguas (Center and South), Herrera, Los Santos, West Panama, southeast Panama (San Miguelito and Chimán), and northeast Darién, the analyses reflect a higher probability that rainfall will behave normally, but a second scenario with a tendency for rainfall to be slightly above normal is not ruled out. - Towards the south of the province of Darién (Chepigana, Pinogana, and Emberá Wounaan Comarca), east Panama (Chepo), and southwest West Panama (Chame and San Carlos), it is more likely that rainfall will be above normal. - Towards the west of Changuinola and Bocas del Toro, upstream of Colón, and northeast of Coclé, a normal scenario is expected.
On the Caribbean slope: - In the regions of eastern Bocas del Toro (east of Almirante and Chiriquí Grande), northern Veraguas, and northern Ngäbe-Buglé Comarca, downstream of Colón, and northwest of Coclé, and the Guna Yala Comarca, rainfall behavior is expected to be above normal.
For Panama, the forecast period of December 2025, January, February, and March 2026 corresponds to the typical months of the dry season on the Pacific slope, with December being the transition month between the rainy and dry seasons.
In contrast, on the Caribbean slope, rainfall persists throughout the year, although it tends to decrease during February and March.
It is essential to note that even within the dry season, isolated downpours can occur; therefore, it is sometimes also called the "little rainy" season.
The Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology of Panama announced the Climate Outlook for the months of December 2025, January, February, and March 2026 as part of the results of the LXXIX Central American Climate Forum.
