The cost of fuel depends on the size of each car's fuel tank and the type of fuel used. Energy sector experts, such as former Minister of Energy Jorge Rivera Staff, state that in the current scenario, with the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price above $100 and fears of escalating conflict in the Middle East, diesel prices are likely to surge again this week. "If the current trend of rising international fuel prices continues, diesel in Panama City could increase by another 50 cents this coming Friday, surpassing the psychological barrier of $5.00 per gallon," he posted on social media X. The $5 per gallon estimated by Rivera Staff would be equivalent to $1.32 per liter. However, the Council of Cabinet approved a temporary measure yesterday to stabilize fuel prices for public and cargo transportation nationwide amidst the impact of the Middle East conflict on international hydrocarbon markets. Minister of Economy and Finance Felipe Chapman announced that a cap of 90 cents per liter for diesel and 88 cents per liter for 91-octane gasoline, fuels used by public transport, will be established. Chapman clarified that 95-octane gasoline is excluded from this measure. The provision will be valid for up to 10 months, though it may be suspended earlier if international market conditions allow. Minister Chapman emphasized that this measure will represent an additional effort of approximately $15 million per month for the Panamanian state, calculated based on current fuel prices. With oil prices above $100 in some European and Asian countries, discussions about electricity savings and reduced car usage are taking place. There is concern over potential disruptions in oil and gas supply chains if the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world's oil moves, continues, and attacks on oil infrastructure in the Persian Gulf occur. How does this affect Panama? Focusing on Panama, a country that is 100% dependent on imported oil, consumers have had to pay an additional $5 to $10 to fill their tanks due to rising fuel prices. While 95-octane gasoline is priced at $1.14 per liter ($4.32 per gallon) and 91-octane at $1.07 per liter ($4.05 per gallon). A comparison of data between WTI Texas oil prices over recent years and the historical fuel variation in Panama reveals a clear correlation, suggesting a new price increase this week. In 2021, 91-octane gasoline was between $0.75 and $0.95 per liter, while 95-octane was between $0.80 and $1.00, with oil (WTI) averaging around $68 per barrel. However, in 2022, with oil rebounding to an average near $94 per barrel and peaks exceeding $110, these prices reached their highest levels, with 91-octane ranging from $1.10 to $1.35 and 95-octane up to $1.40, marking a jump of up to 40% from the previous year. Although adjustments downward were recorded in 2023 and 2025, prices did not return to 2021 levels. For March 2026, 91-octane gasoline is between $1.00 and $1.20 per liter, while 95-octane is between $1.05 and $1.25, confirming that despite fluctuations, fuel costs remain high in the country. In general, filling a tank today represents a considerably higher expense than five years ago, reflecting the sustained impact of changes in the international oil market on the Panamanian consumer. The average U.S. gasoline price has surpassed the $4 per gallon mark for the first time since August 2022, driven by global crude supply instability following the outbreak of war in Iran, as reported by EFE. According to data from the American Automobile Association AAA, the national average on Monday, March 30, was $4.01, an increase of over 30% since military operations against Iran began in late February. At the close of trading this Tuesday, Texas oil, the benchmark for Panama, fell 1.46%, after closing above $100 per barrel for the first time since 2022 due to the Middle East war. At the end of the session, May crude oil futures, the U.S. benchmark, stood at $101.38 per barrel. For a sedan, filling the tank cost $30, and in the last week, it was necessary to spend $50. However, he assured that this financing will not affect the budget allocated for public investment. In the latest price update, effective until April 3, diesel was at $1.21 per liter (around $4.58 per gallon). If they previously spent $20 to fill the tank, now they must pay more than $35 and up to $50. For a sedan-sized car, the tank used to be filled with $25; now the user has to spend around $40 or more. Texas surpassed $100 per barrel yesterday in a close for the first time since July 2022. The world is entering a phase of energy emergency.
