Oil prices remain sensitive to potential negotiation breakdowns, suggesting the current trend could be altered by new geopolitical headlines.
Supply and Logistics Outlook
Despite the respite offered by the ceasefire, Dos Santos warns that physical limitations in supply chains will not be resolved immediately. Thadeu Dos Santos analyzes the fall in oil prices and supply risks.
• The announcement of a two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran has caused a downward correction in oil prices, though logistical challenges persist.
According to Thadeu Dos Santos, Regional Director of Infinox for LATAM, this measure has generated expectations of an immediate de-escalation and the possibility of normalizing crude supply and transport in strategic areas.
Stability in the Strait of Hormuz
The reached agreement includes specific actions to ensure safer transit through the Strait of Hormuz, considered one of the most critical points for global energy trade.
This gradual recovery of supply acts as a factor of resistance that could prevent future sharp drops in crude valuation after the correction observed today.
Repercussions in Latin America
In the regional context, the impact of oil price fluctuation presents a dual scenario.
On one hand, net-exporting countries in the region benefit from robust fiscal revenues when prices are high.
On the other hand, high energy costs increase inflationary pressures and tighten general financial conditions, affecting the economic stability of countries according to their respective internal policy frameworks.
Nevertheless, the author notes that market stability remains fragile. The full restoration of transport schedules and export flows could take several weeks.
