The Mastercard Economics Institute (MEI) has released its 'Economic Outlook 2026' report, projecting a moderate slowdown in global real GDP growth to 3.1% from 3.2% in 2025. Despite the global deceleration, markets in Latin America, such as Argentina and Colombia, are poised for a strong economic rebound in an environment of declining inflation. The report highlights that consumers in the region have shown a remarkable capacity for adaptation, while the agribusiness sector continues to be an economic pillar. Central banks may cut interest rates by up to 12% by the end of the year.
Country-specific projections include: Brazil slowing to 1.5% growth, Mexico showing modest recovery at 1.3%, Argentina growing robustly by 3.5%, and Colombia and Peru both at 2.8%. Chile's growth is estimated at 2.0% with inflation converging to 3.5%.
The report identifies three key global trends: a realignment of global trade driven by new tariff policies, massive corporate investments in AI infrastructure, and shifts in supply chains. In 2026, the consumer is expected to be 'savvy,' prioritizing spending on experiences like travel and live events while maintaining high price sensitivity for essential goods, supported by greater adoption of financial technologies.
