Long Road to EU-Mercosur Ratification

A long journey through national parliaments. Finally, the provisions of the pact that go beyond purely commercial matters will have to be ratified by the parliaments of each of the member states of the European Union, a process that can be delayed for years. Problems in the Parliament. The European Parliament cannot amend the pact, only scrutinize it and subsequently approve or reject it in its entirety; first, its International Trade and Foreign Affairs committees will review it, and then it will have to be voted on by the full plenary. 'The European Parliament is truly divided today,' the text states. The European Union's green light to sign the agreement between the EU and Mercosur does not mean the end of the road for this historic pact, which could still face setbacks in the European Court of Justice and in its ratification process in the European Parliament during 2026. If the Parliament approves the proposal to request an opinion from the Court of Justice of the EU, ratification will be postponed until the European court has issued its opinion. A group of 145 MEPs added their signatures by the end of 2025 to a text that questioned the legal validity of the rebalancing mechanism included in the pact and also the legal basis chosen for its approval, which allows the chapters of the agreement focused on trade to be ratified without the consent of national parliaments. Possible opinion from the European Court. Even before the final vote, the European Parliament could freeze the ratification of the pact until the Court of Justice of the European Union determines its compatibility with European treaties. Reluctant countries that remained in a minority in the Council can thus exercise a veto through their national parliaments, although the pact will apply provisionally even if not all countries have completed this step. The favorable vote of a qualified majority of EU countries this Friday clears the way for the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, to travel next week to Asunción (Paraguay) to sign the pact with its partners from Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay, and Paraguay. The Parliament of the Netherlands did the same in 2024, although since then the Dutch government has changed its stance and is now a defender of the agreement. For example, the powerful Polish delegation of the European People's Party will probably follow the position of its government and vote against, according to parliamentary sources, although the European People's Party will largely pronounce in favor of ratification. It is likely that the groups will not vote homogeneously, as is often the case in votes in the European Parliament, and the country of origin of each MEP will have more weight than their parliamentary affiliation. However, the signing in Asunción opens up a complicated path to the full ratification of the agreement, which depends on the European Parliament (for the purely commercial chapters) and the national parliaments of the countries of both blocs. The Austrian Parliament, among others, has spoken out against the agreement and forced its government to veto it in the Council of the European Union. The vote against France, Poland, Hungary, Austria, and Ireland, along with the abstention of Belgium, was not enough to counter the support of other major EU countries, such as Spain, Germany, and Italy - which has switched to 'yes' in recent days - which managed to pass the vote with a majority of countries representing 68.7% of the European population (the minimum was 65%). 'We must be very cautious in stating that Mercosur will certainly be ratified,' predicted French liberal MEP Pascal Canfin in an interview. This is also the case with French MEPs spread across the various political groups, more than 80 in total, and presumably also with some Belgians and Irish. Although the first attempt to bring it to a vote in the plenary failed in November, sources close to the initiative told EFE that they are working to include it in the agenda for the January plenary, where it would be voted by simple majority. It is not yet clear if a majority of its 719 MEPs will give it their support. On the other hand, some groups have pronounced entirely against: this is the case of the Patriots for Europe, in which the party of the Frenchwoman Marine Le Pen is by far the largest member, as well as the Greens and the Left. The decision will come down to ten to fifteen votes out of more than seven hundred MEPs.